Ukraine's central bank leaves main rate unchanged, sees war as key... > 자유게시판

By Olena Harmash KYIV, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Ukraine's central bank held its main rate at 15% on Thursday aiming to maintain currency stability and moderate inflation this year, saying that the war with Russia remained a key economic risk. It said in a statement that gross domestic product grew by an estimated 5.7% last year thanks to a higher harvest and alternative export routes. The central bank expects GDP to grow by 3.6% this year and consumer price inflation to be about 8.6%.

Central Bank Governor Andriy Pyshnyi highlighted the war with Russia, which has been going on for almost two years. "The main assumption of the National Bank's forecast, as before, is that we expect security risks to decrease from 2025," Pyshnyi told a press briefing. "But the risks of prolonged large-scale hostilities have increased compared to the previous forecast." The war has devastated Ukraine's economy with millions fleeing from cities, infrastructure bombed and destroyed, and logistics and exports disrupted.

The economy shrank by about a third in 2022 before adapting to the war-time reality and beginning to recover. Still, it remains much smaller and fragile than previously and Ukraine is also dependent on international financial aid. Finance ministry data showed that the government received more than $73 billion in foreign financing in 2022 and 2023. New financial packages from the United States and classroom 6x the European Union are being held up by domestic political disagreements but Pyshnyi said he hoped these would be classroom 6x unblocked soon.

The central bank expects Ukraine to receive about $37 billion from Kyiv's Western partners this year. European Union leaders are expected to meet on Feb. 1 to try to overcome Hungary's resistance to a proposed four-year 50 billion euro package for Ukraine. Pyshnyi said that if the expected amount of Western aid is received this year, the central bank sees room for a small rate cut in the second half. The central bank's statement forecast the rate at about 14.2% in the fourth quarter.

Central bank officials also reiterated their readiness to remain active in the foreign exchange market to meet demand for hard currency and maintain the hryvnia's stability. (Reporting by Olena Harmash; Editing by Alex Richardson, Kirsten Donovan)